Nuggets Mount a Furious Comeback to Win Over the Pacers in Indiana 113-106

The Nuggets won their first game against a team that has won at least 1 game this season, by turning an 18 point half time deficit into a 7-point margin at the end, 113-106. The three previous wins by the Nuggets were all against teams that still had not won a single game as of last night; they were a combined 0-16. But the Pacers were 3-2 going into this game. The Nuggets played worse than bad in the first half and better than good in the second half. Both teams were playing on back to back nights, and so the Nuggets had to fight fatigue as they mounted their huge comeback in the second half.

This game was the best of times, and it was the worst of times for the Nuggets, who are the Charles Dickens team of the NBA: two parts drama for every part execution, and a lot of sound and fury, generally signifying nothing. The sound and fury of George Karl was heard at halftime, complaining about the 13 turnovers, bad shooting, and worse defending of the 1st half. At least we now know he has a little fight left in him; you would seriously doubt he has any left judging from his sideline demeanor.

Fans following the game back in Denver were sure at halftime that this was curtains for this team for this season, and they were also thinking that the coaches were definitely going to be switched by the end of the season, if not over the all-star break. But a coach with a long legacy and a big contract such as George Karl has at least as many lives as a cat, and it is almost always too early to pronounce such a coach on his way out. He can mess things up until the cows come home and you will still be able to locate him sitting on the Nugget’s sideline with wreckage all around. It’s nice to hope for new coaches, but don’t start predicting them because you are going to be knocking your head against the wall before long.

It was 74-56 Pacers at the half, 88-82 Pacers after 3 quarters, and the Pacers were still leading 101-97 with 3:28 left in the game. But Iverson fed Melo on two successive plays for jump shot scores, with PF Jermaine O’Neil called for an offensive foul in between, for a 101 each tie with 3 minutes left. The key plays in the final three minutes that won it for the Nuggets were 3 Camby blocks on PG Jamal Tinsley, SG Danny Grainger fouling Melo. with a minute left with Melo. making both free throws for 106-101 Nuggets, and then, following Martin stealing off of Tinsley, Iverson turning the lights out with a 3-pointer with 26 seconds left for 109-101 Nuggets. A.I. is one of the best in the business of turning the lights out.

Melo recently had a short but deep slump coinciding with the three game losing streak; during these 3 games he was only 18/67 (percentage = .269) for 55 points. Every year, Melo has to reacquaint himself with all the double teams he draws, adjusting his tactics to reflect how specific teammates are playing. I’m thinking that this was the main reason for this slump. In this game, Melo completed his second winner of a game out of the slump, He was 7/18 on jumpers, 3/5 on layups, and 10/23 overall for 32 points. The Pacers were unable to guard either Melo or Iverson without fouling; both were an identical 10/12 from the free throw line.

A good rule of thumb is that if you can keep Melo and Iverson’s combined foul shots under 16, you have a good chance of beating the Nuggets. Your odds go down as the number of free throws they get rises above 16. Both Melo and A.I. are over 80% from the line. In other words, don’t foul Melo and Iverson more than a total of about 8 times if you want to beat the Nuggets. Aside from fouling Melo and A.I. 11 times, the Pacers committed 17 other fouls, for a total of 28, too far above the NBA normal of about 22. The Nuggets committed just 18 fouls in total, with Martin and Najera responsible for half of them. Quite honestly, the rest of the Nuggets, except for Diawara and J.R. Smith when he’s riled up, generally don’t defend close enough to be eligible to commit fouls.

With Nene gone until mid or late December, Kenyon Martin’s minutes are rising earlier than according to plan. In this one, although K-Mart was only 1/6 for 2 points, he pulled down 7 rebounds and made 4 steals. Melo answered my call to fight for rebounds because it is crazy to think Camby alone can get most of them; he had 10 rebounds and 5 assists to go along with his 32 points. Camby had 10 rebounds, Iverson 5, and the Denver bench had 15 rebounds.

Here is an important rule of thumb as you ride the Nugget’s rollercoaster from someone who has thrown up his dinner a few times while riding it in seasons past. It is a fantasy to think that A.I., Melo, Camby, and K-mart can win games almost by themselves. If the reserves, with their small minutes from Karl, are able to get at least 14 rebounds and at least 33 points between them, the Nuggets will win most of the time. If the reserve’s scoring is under 22 points, or if their rebounding is under 10 rebounds, as is the case all too often, the Nuggets will almost always lose. In this game, the Denver reserves had 31 points to go along with those 15 rebounds.

For the Nuggets, a 20 point lead or a 20 point deficit is like a 12-14 point lead or deficit for most other teams. The Nuggets can easily give up 8-10 points in 2 or 3 minutes of turnovers and lack of defense. Conversely, the Nuggets can easily get 8-10 points in 2-3 minutes when one of the streaky 3-point shooters hits 2 or 3 3-pointers in a row. Here is your guideline to deal with the Nugget’s rollercoaster in the future. If the Nuggets ever lead by 30 or more anytime in the first 3 quarters, even they will have a very difficult time blowing the game, so a 30 point lead means the Nuggets are going to win in almost all cases. If the Nuggets are ever losing by 27 or more in a game, it is going to be a loss in almost all cases. In this game, the maximum Pacer lead was 25, so they fell just short of sealing the deal. Be ready for anything in the 4th quarter in a game if the margins never exceed those.

In fact, don’t predict anything with respect to the Nuggets who seem, as I indicated in the last report, to size up their opposition to determine whether they should start running and showboating against them, or if they should bow down in submission, and combine enough turnovers and blown covers to make it easy for that team to win. Losing to the good teams is a big fat self-fulfilling prophecy if there ever was one, but such is the limited psychology of our team.

Fans in Denver are confused and conflicted about this team that is not consistent from one half to the next, let alone one game to the next. I think the main reason for the confusion is that the Nuggets think about their opponents too much, and if they conclude or know in advance that their opponent is a good one with good offensive and defensive schemes, an inferiority complex kicks in for the scheme-less Nuggets, and it becomes a long shot that they will win. George Karl without any doubt has an inferiority complex. He disputed that the Nuggets could possibly win 60 out of 82 games when Carmelo Anthony tried to set that goal, saying that 55 was more reasonable, and that even that should not be considered a hard target. A deduction from that is that Karl still believes that it will not be possible for the Nuggets to beat the Spurs, the Mavs, the Suns, or the Jazz in the postseason this year.

But the main thing to realize here is that the psychology underlying most teams is similar to the psychology of their coaches. For example, Spurs Coach Greg Popovich has a certain way of thinking and acting, and the Spurs conduct their business on the court to a substantial extent in accordance with these ways of Popovich. The Nuggets are reflecting the here today and gone tomorrow, weaker confidence of George Karl. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, the Nuggets are never going to win a playoff series until they really believe they can win. If the coach doesn’t really believe it’s possible to win, then it almost certainly will not happen.

So I am hoping that the Nuggets soon stop sizing up their opponents and changing their playing intensity and style based on the supposed quality rather than the game of their opponent. I am also hoping that they come to believe they can compete with the Texas teams, Phoenix, and Utah, regardless of what Karl thinks or says on that subject. There is a psychology behind every player, every game, and every season, and the Nuggets are shooting themselves in the foot by not understanding how you win, or at least avoid defeat, in that mental aspect of sports. Here’s a formula to remember:

Desire to Win + Skills to Win + Strategies & Tactics to Win +Hard Work & Correct Execution to Win + Confidence to Win = Power to Win

The Nuggets have the first two components of that formula down, but they are having a heck of a time with all of the other three. Melo remarked regarding the Pacer win: “If this is not a confidence-booster, I don’t know what is.” Melo has admitted indirectly that the Nuggets don’t have enough confidence! Melo, the best way to have confidence when you need it is to not be losing it by stupid ways of thinking and stupid subjects of thinking. Forget about the damn other teams and how good they are or not are and just concentrate on yourselves and what you are doing on the court.

The story will read that the 2007-08 Denver Nuggets were confusing to just about everyone. They were the best of teams. They were the worst of teams.

Najera played 25 minutes and was 2/3 and 1/1 on 3’s for 5 points, and he had 6 rebounds, 2 steals, and an assist. Yakhouba Diawara played 11 minutes and was 4/5 and ¾ on 3’s for 11 points, and he had 1 rebound.

Bobby Jones played 9 minutes and was 0/1 on 3’s and 2/2 from the line for 2 points, and he had 1 rebound.

Linas Kleiza played 31 minutes and was 7/12, 2/7 on 3’s, and 5/5 from the line for 21 points, and he had 7 rebounds.

Kenyon Martin played 27 minutes and was 1/6 for 2 points, and he had 7 rebounds and 4 steals.

J.R. Smith played 19 minutes and was 1/5 and ¼ on 3’s for 3 points, and he had 4 assists and 1 rebound.

Marcus Camby played 39 minutes and was 4/10 and 2/3 from the line for 10 points, and he had 10 rebounds, 5 blocks, 4 steals, and 3 assists.

A.I. played 43 minutes and was 7/17, 3/8 on 3’s, and 10/12 from the line for 27 points, and he had 10 assists, 5 rebounds, and 3 steals

Melo played 37 minutes and was 10/23, 2/6 on 3’s, and 10/12 from the line for 32 points, and he had 10 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 block, and 1 steal.

The next game will be Monday, November 12 in Denver to play the Cavaliers at 7 pm mountain time. The Cavaliers will be playing on back to back nights, whereas the Nuggets will be rested.