Najera is Huge and Iverson is Outstanding While Running the Point as the Nuggets Beat the Spurs in Denver 109-96

Few people know that the Spurs and the Nuggets are almost exactly equal in talent. Even fewer know that the Nuggets, if you adjust for their fast pace, are not vastly inferior to the Spurs on defense. The reason the Spurs almost always win, to put it bluntly, is that they are a lot smarter than the Nuggets.

So two of the NBA’s most talented teams, and two of the NBA’s best defensive teams, the Nuggets and Spurs, played in front of a national TV audience and in front of an unusually raucous thank God it’s Friday crowd at the Pepsi Center in Denver. In this clash of titans, Spurs Coach Greg Popovich tried every strategy, called every play, put every player in the game, called every timeout, yelled at every player, and cussed at every official that he could think of. But nothing could stop the extremely fired up Nuggets, who were aided substantially by their crowd for a change, from coming out in the 2nd half and taking no prisoners.

Although Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili were rock solid as usual, the third piece of the Spurs’ three-headed monster, PG Tony Parker, was almost a disaster, and nothing Popovich did could get the Spurs out of the huge hole that was created by Parker’s poor game.

Eduardo Najera defended well, rotated well, screened well, scrambled for loose balls, hustled from all over the place for rebounds, made 8/10 shots for 19 points in 25 minutes, worked extremely hard for 2 steals, worked smart for 2 assists, and played his game of the year and one of his all time greatest games as a Nugget, as the Denver Nuggets maintained their fighting chance to get one of the last two playoff spots in the West by defeating the San Antonio Spurs in Denver 109-96.

The Nuggets are most likely battling for the last playoff spot, unless the Suns collapse even worse than expected following their loss of Shawn Marion via a bad trade. However, before anyone gets carried away, and starts to think that the Nuggets made a statement, you must know that the Spurs were playing on back to back nights, so the Nuggets had both the home court and the extra rest advantages, and they were fired up even by thank God it’s Friday standards. It is pretty rare for the road team to win when it is playing on back to back nights, and the home team is not.

In one of the highlights of the whole season, Najera raced in from the right corner to grab an offensive rebound from the left side of the rim and pumped it way out to J.R. Smith, who swished a sweet long three. You almost never see that kind of play against the Spurs. As for Smith, he doesn’t even have to be on or near the line to make threes these days. On another Smith long 3 that was swished, the ESPN announcer remarked that the extremely high trajectory of the ball might have disturbed some pigeons in the rafters of the arena.

Both Najera and Smith were especially impulsive in this game. But George Karl thinks impulsiveness is a bad thing in basketball. He thinks that a player should always think for a second before he does anything. But players who have legendary status, such as Allen Iverson, are almost always given the benefit of the doubt by Karl regarding their thinking and decisions in games.

Other Coaches want to help direct the thoughts of their players while games are going on. In other words, they want to do some of the thinking for their players. But Karl perceives his role as limited to trying to get his players to think better in general, so that they can be better thinkers and decision makers during games. This sounds reasonable at first, and it sounds so normal, because that is what the objective of education is, to get students to be better thinkers. Unfortunately, basketball is not the same as life in general.

Karl will sometimes tell a player what he thinks he should do, but he won’t tell a player how to decide when or what he should do in different situations. For example, he will tell Melo to go the rim more, but he won’t tell him when he should instead go to the rim and when he should kick it out to J.R. Smith or Linas Kleiza on the perimeter. What Karl will not tell his players is very important in a basketball game, because most players can see only the trees, the other players, and can not see the forest, which is how the game as a whole is going and how it might be won.

With Karl, the thinking burden is almost all on the player. This helps explain why Karl does not feel the need to call offensive plays, either specifically or generally, in preparation for or during games. Karl thinks the players are supposed to think of offensive plays as they go. Or more precisely, players are supposed to be able to think of the right thing to try at any given time. And Karl holds all of his players responsible for their game decisions and reserves the right to criticize those decisions, even directly to the media, whereas most other Coaches in effect take some of the responsibility for decisions made by players in games, and almost never criticize a player’s decision making in public.

The approach of those other coaches has a more successful record than Karl’s approach in the NBA, particularly in hard fought playoff games. (Coach, I hate to tell you, but even A.I. doesn’t always think about what he is going to do next, even for 1 second. He’ll never tell, so I just revealed his little secret.)

Najera and Smith were key performers in this game precisely because they played impulsively, with instinct, without having to waste a second thinking. Players who have abilities and who have trained to make those abilities ready to rock and roll should be chock loaded with confidence, and a huge amount of confidence naturally leads to impulsive decisions. Unlike life in general, sports rewards those who make decisions extremely quickly, including in no time at all. In short, impulsiveness is not a bad thing in Sports, unless the player does not have the abilities and the training to allow impulsive decisions to pay off. But if that is the case, the player would not be a pro NBA player in the first place, would he? The fact that Karl will never understand this is a true shame.

It was Iverson playing both guard positions for most of the night. PG Anthony Carter did little in this game and PG Chucky Atkins did almost nothing. To say that Iverson was masterful while running things would be an understatement; he made 9 assists and only 2 turnovers while scoring 29 points on 10/16 shooting and 10/11 from the line. For those who think Iverson can’t play point guard: if you don’t think that’s good enough for a point guard, then you have your requirements set way to high, my friend. For those who think J.R. Smith is not a good enough 2-guard, please read some recent game reports, especially the last one for the Suns game, and see if you still think that way.

We have been discussing and proving the folly of having PG Anthony Carter and PG-SG Allen Iverson out on the floor at the same time in recent reports. In this game, it was obvious that Iverson was playing both guard positions for much of the time he was out there, and he was out there for virtually the whole game. Only when J.R. Smith was in the game did Iverson wisely step back a little and mostly limit himself to running the point. The reason for this is that The Answer has become a true believer in Smith’s ability to contribute huge scoring for the Nuggets. On the other hand, Iverson is more and more proceeding almost as if Carter is not even there.

Carter did very little in this game as a result of Iverson’s decisions, exactly as we predicted. Carter had his minutes limited to 19 minutes, down from his season average of 30. Was this because George Karl has finally understood this problem and is starting to address it? No, of course not. Carter’s reduced minutes were due almost entirely to the need to insert PG Chucky Atkins into a game for the first time in about two months.

However, there was a 3 minute stretch, in the middle of the 2nd quarter, when the Nuggets had only 1 point guard out there. Iverson was getting a rare breather, Carter was also out, and Chucky Atkins was the only PG out there at that time. Of course, Atkins did nothing to speak of during that time, but we have been begging for a one point guard offense, and we got it for 3 minutes, and we should be grateful just for that. Now maybe if we wait about 10 years, Karl will finally have realized that Iverson should be the point guard instead of Atkins or Carter.

Chucky Atkins, who was brought on to the team from the Grizzlies to be the starting PG for the Nuggets, played for the first time since early January after having missed 26 straight games due to a hernia.

Nuggets 1 has recently gone all out to point out the folly of having both Carter and Iverson, both very small guards, in the game at the same time, since Iverson is gradually taking over more and more of the point guard duties. Nuggets 1 has pointed out that it is borderline madness to have Carter and Iverson on the floor at the same time for more than about half a quarter, since Carter is close to worthless once Iverson has decided to go into the point guard mode.

The Spurs apparently didn’t get the memo about how Iverson is gradually taking over running the point for the Nuggets, so that he is essentially playing both guard positions at once, even while PG Carter is out there with him, so that there is a bigger payoff than ever if you double team A.I. They instead decided to double team Melo, and they did that well of course, but only in the 1st half. Bruce Bowen especially frustrated the heck out of Melo in the 1st half. Double teaming Melo is so old fashioned, Spurs! Come on, get with the times and double Iverson a lot more next time if the Nuggets have Iverson-Carter or Iverson-Atkins in the back court at the same time! Granted, Melo can still do a lot of damage, but Iverson is the guy from which almost every Nuggets play comes from these days.

George Karl urged Melo to take it to the rim more in the second half to get out of the rut Bowen and company had put him in, and that was exactly the right thing to do. If they are doubling and being physical to take away the midrange jumper, go to the spin moves, the stutter stepping, the pick and rolls, the kick outs. Don’t think you can still make ordinary midrange jumpers when the Spurs are draped all over you like a wet rag. Take it to the rim one way or another. So Melo and the Nuggets did this in the 3rd quarter, and the Spurs were then crushed in that quarter, which eliminated any chance they could win this game. Almost by accident, the way to beat the Spurs was discovered by the Nuggets. Abandon the midrange jumper, and replace it with dunks, layups, offensive rebounds, free throws, and kick outs to the perimeter for threes.

The Nuggets outscored the Spurs in the paint 42-30, and they got a nice 20 points off fast breaks versus 14 fast break points for the Spurs. At the same time, the Nuggets, who are not a good three-point shooting team by any stretch, nevertheless made an amazing 7/14 threes in this game. J.R. Smith was 3/5 and Iverson was 2/3 to lead the Nuggets.

Turnovers were about even, but the Nuggets prevailed in offensive rebounding 5-3 and in defensive rebounding 34-28. Camby made 13 rebounds, Anthony made 8 rebounds, Najera made 6 rebounds, and Martin made 5 rebounds.

Overall, the Nuggets were an astounding 40/74 or 54.1% from the field, while the Spurs were a not quite as astounding 37/75 or 49.3%.

Coach Popovich, realizing that the Spurs’ cause was lost in what is always a long shot situation, trying to win on the road while playing on back to back nights, while the home team is rested, pulled Duncan, Ginobili, Parker, and Bowen half way through the 4th quarter, with the Nuggets leading 96-81 and more fired up than anyone can remember them being this season. This was not a mistake as the ESPN announcer said it might be. Popovich recognizes a lost cause when he sees one.

When you look at this game closely, you can see that the truth is that the Nuggets became a rough, blue collar version of the Spurs for a night. They had to, because the Spurs always insist that you play their way if you want to beat them. The Nuggets changed their stripes, in other words, and were able to defeat the Spurs while playing at the Spurs’ slow pace, and while relying heavily on defense. The shock on Duncan and Parker’s faces late in the 4th after they had been pulled from the game was priceless. They were shocked that Popovich had tried almost everything in the Spurs’ book, and nothing worked well against the Nuggets on this night.

They were even more shocked that the Nuggets had a surface resemblance to themselves. How could this be? they asked themselves. How could a team that knows so little about how to win basketball games have overcome every trick that Popovich and the Spurs threw at them?

I’ll tell you the reasons. First, it was because not all games are won by those who know more about how to win. Some games are won by hard work, talent, and impulsiveness alone.

Second, The Answer has finally figured out that the answer for the Nuggets is for him to make sure that the crucial point guard position is run by someone who has enough talent to do it well, and that would be himself. Allen Iverson has crossed another river in the quest for the ring.

PROJECTIONS

Nuggets 1 Current odds, to the nearest 5%, of the Nuggets making the playoffs: 50%
Nuggets 1 Current odds, to the nearest 5%, that the Nuggets and their suffering fans will be stuck with George Karl for next season: 65%

The current odds of the Nuggets making the playoffs, according to Hollinger at ESPN’s excellent team analysis system, are 67%. However, and I know this is confusing, the Nuggets are projected to most likely be the 9th seed in the Western Conference, meaning that they will not make the playoffs. It seems right now that the Suns, the Warriors, and the Nuggets will be battling it out for the last 2 playoff spots in the West. All three of them are considered likely to make the playoffs, in statistical terms, but not all three are going to make it. Nuggets 1 agrees with Hollinger’s system, which is saying that the Suns and the Warriors are favored in that race, although the Warriors-Nuggets race is razor tight.

The Hollinger odds don’t take into account that, most likely, neither Nene nor Atkins is going to be available in top form for the Nuggets for the stretch run. Atkins was a disaster in his first time back in the Spurs game. If the Hollinger odds adjusted for injuries, it would show a lower percentage chance than 67% for the Nuggets to make the playoffs.

The Lakers, the Rockets, the Spurs, the Jazz, and the Hornets are currently considered locks to make the playoffs, and the Mavericks are currently considered near locks to make the playoffs. However, the Rockets are no longer really total locks, due to the loss of Yao Ming for the season. But they are still near locks. The Suns are in trouble, due to their terrible trade, which was Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks for Shaquille O’Neal.

PLAYOFF TEAMS PROJECTED FINAL RECORDS-HOLLINGER-ESPN
1. Lakers 59-23
2. Spurs 56-26
3. Rockets 55-27
4. Jazz 54-28
5. Hornets 53-29
6. Mavericks 51-31
7. Suns 51-31
8. Warriors 50-32

NON-PLAYOFF TEAMS PROJECTED FINAL RECORDS-HOLLINGER-ESPN
9. Nuggets 49-33
10. Trailblazers 42-40

The Rockets have just lost their best player, and one of the best players in the NBA, Yao Ming, for the rest of the season. Therefore, they will probably drop substantially below their current projection, since the projections do not take injuries into account. The Suns will probably drop a little more also, because they made a bad trade when they gave up “The Matrix,” Shawn Marion. At this time, however, Nuggets 1 does not believe that either the Rockets or the Suns will fail to win at least 50 games, so they will most likely finish ahead of the Nuggets despite their difficulties.

As for the Warriors, they have an easier schedule than the Nuggets the rest of the way, so Nuggets 1 agrees with Hollinger’s system, and thinks that the Warriors will finish very slightly ahead of the Nuggets. If the Warriors and the Nuggets finish with identical records, and the season series between them ends up tied 2-2, the Warriors are likely to get the playoff spot rather than the Nuggets, because it is likely that the Warriors will finish at least 1 game ahead of the Nuggets in Conference record, which would be the tie-breaker if the Warriors and the Nuggets split their 4 head to head games. If either the Nuggets or the Warriors win both of the remaining two head to head games that the teams play, then that winner will earn a big advantage toward securing the final playoff spot. The Nuggets-Warriors games are on Saturday, March 29 in Denver and on Thursday, April 10 in Oakland. Neither the Warriors nor the Nuggets will be playing on back to back nights in either of those games.

So overall, Nuggets 1 agrees with the Hollinger system; as of now, we think the Nuggets will fail to make the playoffs. But it will be an extremely close call, and it could go either way. One extra win by the Nuggets could easily be all that is needed for them to make the playoffs. Specifically, if the Nuggets can go 13-8 in their last 22 games, and finish 50-32, that is likely to be good enough for at least the 8th seed. All bets are off if the Nuggets are 12-9 in their last 22 games. If the Nuggets are 11-10 or worse, it is very unlikely that they will make the playoffs.

If you win a division you get into the playoffs regardless of how poor your record is. For the Nuggets, winning the Northwest Division is very unlikely at this point; the odds on that are at 12%. The odds that Utah will win the Northwest are 88% right now. The Nuggets would most likely have to beat the Jazz in both of their remaining games against them, both of which are in Salt Lake City, and one of which is this Saturday night, in order to have a shot at winning the Northwest.

PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
NUGGETS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE / INJURY REPORT
Chucky Atkins: returned to the lineup vs. San Antonio on 3/7 after missing the previous 26 games due to a surgically repaired right groin/abdominal strain (Sports Hernia). He is considered probable for tonight’s game against the Jazz.
Nene: underwent successful surgery to remove a testicular tumor on Jan. 14. A timeline for his return is still unknown. He is out until at least the middle of March, but could easily be out for the entire rest of the season. Nene has now missed 27 straight games this season. CBS Sportsline says Nene is likely to be out for the rest of the season.
Carmelo Anthony: suffered a left knee contusion in this game, but is probable for the Jazz game tonight.
Allen Iverson: suffered a sprained right ring finger in this game. X-Rays were negative and he is probable for tonight’s game. CBS Sportsline has Iverson as questionable.
Steven Hunter: A death in the family made him unavailable for last night’s Spurs game, and also for Saturday night’s Jazz game.

SPURS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
None, all Spurs on the roster were available.

ALERT STATUS PROBLEMS
As of March 8, 2008

The Nuggets are under a GREY ALERT, on account of the following problems.

INJURIES, ILLNESSES, SUSPENSIONS, AND LEAVES
1. Nene illness 14 points
2. Steven Hunter 4 points

SEVERE AND UNEXPECTED CRUCIAL PLAYER SLUMPS
Chucky Atkins, 13 points

BAD OR INADEQUATE COACHING
1. George Karl has completely benched one or more players who should not be benched due to his incorrect calculation of the benefits and costs of that player, his hatred of the player, and/or his having the ulterior motive of forcing the player off the team. The problem points would be the points you would have if the player were injured.

No one is currently completely benched who should not be: 0 points.

2. One or more players are partially benched; their minutes are being artificially limited due to abstract and subjective factors that the Denver coaches believe are more important than performance on the court.

J.R. Smith was partially benched: 0 points. Smith was not partially benched.

3. George Karl over relies on his starters and won’t play the non-starters enough: 0-12 Points. The severity varies depending on the circumstances, mainly Karl’s beliefs and moods, and whether the other team is playing well enough to take advantage of the Nuggets playing with not enough breathers, with too many fouls, and so forth. The current points reported are for the use, or should I say the misuse, of the reserves for the most recent games, with the most weight being given to the game being reported on here.

The bad use of reserves score for this game is 0 points. Najera and Smith were huge from off the bench, and they both received their minimum reasonable minutes. Kleiza’s minutes have been cut, but that makes sense because Kleiza is in a slump. Wow, Karl did a great job in this game on the player rotations!

4. The Nuggets have extreme offensive inconsistency and an excessive number of turnovers because they have neither a system nor even a good partial system on offense. They over rely on fast pace and on isolation plays, especially isolation plays by Anthony and Iverson. The damage caused by this would be up to 20 points, except that Iverson’s intelligence in recognizing different situations and responding appropriately, in particular games, reduces the damage. At one time earlier this season, Iverson and Carter were marginalizing Anthony to some extent. That problem went away when Anthony ramped up his rebounding.

However, another problem has developed due to a combination of the unstructured offense and the Karl lineup, and it is not going to go away anytime soon. That would be the double point guard problem. The Nuggets don’t know in advance who is going to be the effective point guard in the game: Iverson, Carter, or both Iverson and Carter roughly equally. And in any case, it is foolish to have two point guards in the game for more than a small number of minutes.

In any event, the Nuggets lack enough tried and tested offensive plays that they can run game after game, perfecting them as they go, and having everyone automatically on the same page for those plays.

On defense a system is much less important than on offense. How good your defense is is determined much more by effort and skill than by strategy. On defense, the main strategic decision is whether you are playing zone or man to man defense. The choice varies during each game, and usually depends on a gut feeling of the coach and/or the defensive floor leader, as to which is better at a particular point in the game, and with a particular opposing lineup on the court. At least as important as whether a zone or a man to man defense is in effect is the quality of the actual defending.

Lack of an adequate number of offensive plays and patterns: 6 Points

INTENSITY, HUSTLE, AND HEART
1. The Nugget’s intensity, hustle and heart are lacking: 0 Points. It’s not anywhere near as bad as some fans think it is.

TOTAL PROBLEM POINTS: 37, which constitutes GREY ALERT.

GREY ALERT (30-39): There are relatively minor problems leading to a small threat against the success of the entire season. It is still possible to beat quality teams, but it will be a little more unusual to beat a quality team, because about 1/4 of what would have been wins against good teams will now be losses when there is a GREY ALERT.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE ALERT STATUS
George Karl has gotten the rotations within reason, for a change, and Iverson has taken over running the point more than ever so, all of the sudden, the Nuggets alert status has improved substantially.

The Nuggets would be all the way up to GREEN alert, except that Chucky Atkins is showing nothing so far in his return from a long injury out. So Nuggets 1 listed him in the “severe and unexpected crucial player slump” section. The points will be reduced as Atkins gets better.

The Nuggets have been unable to issue any prediction about when or whether Nene is going to return to the court. There was a rumor recently that he was going to return by mid-March, but there is no sign that that will become a reality yet. CBS Sportsline is saying that, most likely, Nene will not return to the court at all this season, including for the playoffs. If Nene in fact never returns, and Atkins continues to be a lost cause, and Karl goes back to making his usual mistakes, and if Carter starts to reassert himself at point guard, the Nuggets will return to YELLOW alert. In any event, George Karl is definitely not going to pull a few offensive set plays out of a hat any time soon.

The mid January losses to the Bobcats and the Hawks, and the close calls at home against the Wolves and the Hawks in January, in games that should have and probably would have been relatively easy wins had the alert status been green, grey, or even yellow, illustrate the usefulness and accuracy of the alert system. When you reach ORANGE ALERT and especially RED ALERT, you start losing a substantial number of games that you would normally win. It’s that simple, and there is little anyone can do about it.

RESERVE WATCH
Number of Players Who Played at Least 6 Minutes: Nuggets 9 Spurs 12
Number of Players Who Played at Least 10 Minutes: Nuggets 8 Spurs 9

Nuggets Non-Starters Points: 34
Spurs Non-Starters Points: 28

Nuggets Non-Starters Rebounds: 10
Spurs Non-Starters Rebounds: 8

Nuggets Non-Starters Assists: 8
Spurs Non-Starters Assists: 8

THE RESERVES IN THIS GAME
Coach Greg Popovich of the Spurs is one of the most intelligent basketball coaches in the NBA today, and he is one of only a few coaches who can manage a 9 or 9-plus player rotation in a game. In this game, Popovich played 9 players for 10 or more minutes, and 3 other players for 6, 9, and 9 minutes. Although Popovich pulled his stars half way through the 4th quarter, with the Nuggets leading 96-81, he through everything including the kitchen sink into the effort to win this back to back road game prior to that point. Of those 3 players who played less than 10 minutes, only 1 of them was limited to what Popovich decided was garbage time, Matt Bonner for 6 minutes. The other two, Jacque Vaughn and Fabricio Oberto, played much earlier in the game, for 9 minutes each. So Popovich came extremely close to playing 11 players for 10 or more minutes in non-garbage time basketball, an astounding feat that probably no other coach, even Phil Jackson, would be able to manage well. So the longstanding dispute about who is the smartest coach in basketball, Jackson or Popovich, may have been decided last night, at least pending fresh evidence, in favor of Popovich.

Since J.R. Smith and especially Eduardo Najera were on fire, the Nuggets’ non-starters were able to get relatively unusual wins over the opponent’s non-starters in both points and rebounds.

Nugget’s non-starters generally don’t get many assists at all, but in this game, they got 8, and tied the Spurs’ non-starters, who generally do get a good number of assists in most games. Having the Nuggets’ non-starters get a lot of assists counts as one of those “I thought I’d never see” that moments.

I hope to develop the reserve watch feature further in the future, because I want to try to expand what I already have in terms of a game coaching evaluation system. But the complications involved explain why there are no formal statistics anywhere on the internet on the subject of how much non-starters contribute to different teams, and also why coaches are not compared statistically the way players are. There are a lot of variables that come into the use of reserves that interfere with the objective of judging their use. Statisticians call this “statistical noise,” and if you have a substantial amount of it, then what you are trying to do with your statistics becomes very difficult or next to impossible.

GEORGE KARL CONFIDENCE IN HIS TEAM RATING (Scale of 0 to 10)
3: He's hiding under his seat on the sidelines

PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED
You can tell how well every player played at a glance. Of the advanced statistics I have seen on the internet, this one seems to have the best balance between offense and defense. While some are biased in favor of offensive players, such as the efficiency measure at the NBA site, many other advanced statistics are biased in favor of good defenders, and do not reflect the heavy importance of offense in basketball. Here is the formula for the ESPN rating of a player, which I think is a very good balance between offense and defense:

Points + Rebounds + 1.4*Assists + Steals + 1.4*Blocks - .7*Turnovers + # of Field Goals Made +1/2*# of 3-pointers Made - .8*# of Missed Field Goals - .8*# of Missed Free Throws + .25 *# of Free Throws Made

All players on each team who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The number after “game,” is how well the player did in this game, whereas the number after “season” is that player’s overall average for the entire season.

NUGGETS-SPURS PLAYER RATINGS
NUGGETS PLAYER RATINGS

Allen Iverson: Game 47.8 Season 41.5
Eduardo Najera: Game 36.5 Season 13.5
Carmelo Anthony: Game 34.9 Season 39.4
J.R. Smith: Game 24.0 Season 15.9
Marcus Camby: Game 18.6 Season 32.8
Kenyon Martin: Game 12.7 Season 22.4
Anthony Carter: Game 9.3 Season 20.8
Linas Kleiza: Game 7.8 Season 18.2
Chucky Atkins: Game -0.8 Season 5.4

Nene: Did Not Play-Illness
Steven Hunter: Did Not Play-Personal Leave

Yakhouba Diawara: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision
Taurean Green: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision

SPURS PLAYER RATINGS
Tim Duncan: Game 44.1 Season 38.9
Manu Ginobili: Game 38.9 Season 34.3
Bruce Bowen: Game 22.1 Season 11.0
Kurt Thomas: Game 16.0 Season 19.2
Ime Udoka: Game 10.6 Season 10.2
Robert Horry: Game 9.9 Season 6.4
Tony Parker: Game 9.9 Season 29.6
Damon Stoudamire: Game 8.8 Season 13.3
Matt Bonner: Game 8.7 Season 9.9
Michael Finley: Game 6.1 Season 15.7
Fabricio Oberto: Game 2.2 Season 13.3
Jacque Vaughn : Game -2.3 Season 8.3

NOTE 1: these stats do not correct for the big differences in playing times. Players with small minutes would get a higher rating if they had more minutes.
NOTE 2: This performance measure does NOT include the quality and quantity of each player’s defending, including the number of shots that the player prevented from going in the basket. The best Nuggets defenders are Camby, Martin, and Najera.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE PLAYER RATINGS:
It was the game of the year for Najera, who was almost 3 times as productive as usual, not even counting his quality defending. Iverson was Iverson plus in this game. The Spurs, despite their obsession with stopping Anthony, despite all of their double teaming and off the ball roughing up of Melo, were able to knock off only 10% from his usual performance level. That right there was pretty much game, set, and match. The Spurs very rarely get such a small return on their player shutdown efforts.

J.R. Smith continued his Amazing 2008 Tour from Fantasyland, by having yet anotherbig game; he was half again as much better than usual.

One of the most amazing things about this game was that, while Najera was huge, 3 of the 4 other front court players were not. Camby and Martin were only slightly more than half as productive as usual, and Kleiza was a little less than half as productive as usual. Seeing Najera far more productive than all but one of the other forwards (all except for Melo) is something that you will rarely, if ever, see again.

PF Duncan and SG Ginobili did about as well as you could expect in a back to back game on the road. SF Bowen was more offensive minded than usual, to go along with his stop Melo efforts, in 25 minutes, and he scored almost double his usual points, so he was twice as productive as usual.

Among the huge list of role players that Popovich played in this game, PF Horry was really the only one who stepped up to any extent.

SF Udoka and PF Bonner were average. C Thomas started at center over C Oberto, but he was 1/5 off his normal and was a key reason why the Spurs lost. Oberto didn’t do much of anything.

PG Stoudamire played fewer minutes than usual, which explains why he was only a little more than half as productive as usual. SG Finley doesn’t have that excuse; he was less than half as productive as usual, so he was a substantial disappointment for the Spurs in this game. PG Vaughn did nothing in 9 minutes.

Despite the long list of disappointments for the Spurs, there was one player who was by far the biggest disappointment of all for them: PG Tony Parker. Just as the Nuggets have three major stars: Iverson, Anthony, and Camby, the Spurs have three mega stars: Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker. But Parker was hardly a mega star in this game. In 29 minutes he was 2/7 for 4 points; he never got to the line once. He made his assist average, 6 assists, but he turned it over 5 times, about twice as much as usual, and he made only 1 steal and 2 rebounds. It could have been even worse, but Parker was only 1/3 as productive as he usually is. Parker created a deficit that, despite Popovich’s massive effort, the Spurs were unable to offset.

REAL PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED
The Real Player Rating reflects reality better than the gross player rating, since it washes out differences in playing times among the players. The straight up player rankings are obviously heavily affected by how many playing minutes the various players get. With many teams, you can rely on the coach to give his various players roughly the playing time that makes the most sense for his team. Unfortunately, some coaches bring other factors besides actual performance into their rotation decisions. Therefore, it makes good sense to introduce a new and extremely important statistic that Nuggets 1 calls the Real per Minute Player Rating. As the name implies, this is the gross ESPN player rating divided by the number of minutes. The statistic is called Real Player Rating for short.

This statistic allows anyone to see whether or not players who play only a small number of minutes are doing better than their low gross rating will indicate. You can spot diamond in the rough players who are not getting all the respect and playing time due to them. At the same time, it will allow anyone to see whether players with a lot of minutes are playing worse than, as well as, or better than their gross rating shows.

In summary, the Real Player Rating allows the reader, at a glance, to see exactly how well each player is doing without regard to playing time, which is subject to coaching error and subjective and less important factors such as a player's personality. The Real Player Rating provides the real truth-pure knowledge not available anywhere else.

SCALE FOR THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
1.80 More Amazing Happens, but only certain players can ever fly this high
1.60 1.80 Superstar Plus-Above Normal Even For Michael Jordan
1.40 1.60 Superstar Performance-A Michael Jordan Type Game
1.20 1.40 Star Plus-Spectacular Performance
1.05 1.20 Star Performance
0.90 1.05 Outstanding Game
0.80 0.90 Very Good Game
0.70 0.80 Good Game
0.60 0.70 Mediocre Game
0.50 0.60 Poor Game
0.40 0.50 Very Poor Game
0.25 0.40 Extremely Poor-Near Disaster
Less 0.25 Total Disaster

NUGGETS-SPURS REAL PLAYER RATINGS
All players who played 5 minutes or more are included. Any player who played only 5-9 minutes is noted.

1. Eduardo Najera, Den 1.460
2. Matt Bonner, SA 1.450…Bonner played for only 6 minutes.
3. Manu Ginobili, SA 1.389
4. Tim Duncan, SA 1.336
5. Allen Iverson, Den 1.086
6. J.R. Smith, Den 0.923
7. Carmelo Anthony, Den 0.895
8. Bruce Bowen, SA 0.884
9. Kurt Thomas, SA 0.667
10. Robert Horry, SA 0.660
11. Damon Stoudamire, SA 0.629
12. Marcus Camby, Den 0.600
13. Linas Kleiza, Den 0.557
14. Anthony Carter, Den 0.489
15. Ime Udoka, SA 0.408
16. Kenyon Martin, Den 0.385
17. Tony Parker, SA 0.341
18. Michael Finley, SA 0.265
19. Fabricio Oberto, SA 0.244…Oberto played for only 9 minutes.
20. Chucky Atkins, Den -0.114…Atkins played for only 7 minutes.
21. Jacque Vaughn, SA -0.256…Vaughn played for only 9 minutes.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Eduardo Najera was the best player on the court and was a superstar in this game. Matt Bonner for the Spurs was also a superstar, but only for very limited minutes. The Spurs had 2 players who were star-plus, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili. Allen Iverson was a plain old star. Among the 4 players who were stars or better and who played at least 10 minutes, each team had 2.

J.R. Smith was outstanding for the Nuggets. Anthony for the Nuggets and Bowen for the Spurs were very good.

Thomas, Horry, and Stoudamire were all just mediocre for the Spurs, which was a big disappointment for them. Camby was mediocre for the Nuggets.

For the Nuggets, Kleiza was poor, Carter was very poor, and Martin, not counting his defending, was extremely poor. Martin fouled out late in the game, turned it over 3 times, and failed to get any assists or blocks. On the other hand, he was 4/6 for 8 points and he made 5 rebounds, so it could have been worse. Let’s face it, the Nuggets have no plays planned out in advance to get Martin the ball where he wants it on the court.

The Spurs also had 3 players who were huge disappointments. Udoka was very poor, and both Parker and Finley were extremely poor, with Finley just about a disaster.

NUGGET’S PLUS—MINUS
This tells you how the score changed while a player was on the court. All Nuggets who played at least 10 minutes are shown.

J.R. Smith: +16
Eduardo Najera: +15
Marcus Camby: +10
Linas Kleiza: +10
Allen Iverson: +9
Carmelo Anthony: +6
Kenyon Martin: +0
Anthony Carter: -7

OBSERVATIONS ON PLUS—MINUS
The two stars from off the bench, Smith and Najera, were the most damaging players as far as the Spurs were concerned. Martin and especially Carter were the weakest Nuggets in terms of how the game changed when they were out on the court.

NUGGETS MADE WHAT?
All Nuggets who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The order is from lowest to highest in real player rating.

Turnovers: NBA Average: 14, Nuggets’ Total 15, Team 0, Anthony 3, Atkins 0, Camby 2, Carter 1, Iverson 2, Kleiza 0, Martin 3, Najera 1, Smith 3

Personal Fouls: NBA Average: 21, Nuggets’ Total 20, Anthony 3, Atkins 0, Camby 1, Carter 1, Iverson 1, Kleiza 1, Martin 6, Najera 4, Smith 3

Chucky Atkins played 7 minutes and was 0/1 and 0/1 on 3’s for 0 points.

Kenyon Martin played 33 minutes and was 4/6, 0/1 on 3’s, and 0/2 from the line for 8 points, and he made 5 rebounds and 1 steal.

Anthony Carter played 19 minutes and was 1/2, 1/2 on 3’s, and 2/2 from the line for 5 points, and he made 2 assists and 1 rebound.

Linas Kleiza played 14 minutes and was 0/1 for 0 points, and he made 4 assists and 3 rebounds.

Marcus Camby played 31 minutes and was 4/11 and 0/1 from the line for 8 points, and he made 13 rebounds and 1 assist.

Carmelo Anthony played 39 minutes and was 7/17, 0/1 on 3’s, and 11/16 from the line for 25 points, and he made 8 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 steals.

J.R. Smith played 26 minutes and was 6/10 and 3/5 on 3’s for 15 points, and he made 3 steals, 2 assists, and 1 rebound.

Allen Iverson played for virtually the whole game, 44 minutes, and was 10/16, 2/3 on 3’s, and 7/10 from the line for 29 points, and he made 9 assists and 2 rebounds.

Eduardo Najera played 25 minutes and was 8/10, 1/1 on 3’s, and 2/2 from the line for 19 points, and he made 6 rebounds, 2 steals, and 2 assists.

NEXT UP
The next game will be Saturday, March 8 in Salt Lake City to play the Jazz at 7 pm mountain time. Both the Nuggets and the Jazz will be playing on back to back nights.