Real Team Ratings: Final Ratings for 2009-10

REAL TEAM RATINGS
2009-10 Season
Final End of Season Ratings

1 Orlando Magic 64.99
2 Cleveland Cavaliers 64.64
3 Los Angeles Lakers 43.40
4 Dallas Mavericks 40.73
5 Utah Jazz 39.60
6 San Antonio Spurs 36.35
7 Denver Nuggets 35.88
8 Atlanta Hawks 35.49
9 Portland Trail Blazers 34.58
10 Phoenix Suns 33.64
11 Oklahoma City Thunder 29.74
12 Boston Celtics 27.35
13 Charlotte Bobcats 25.60
14 Miami Heat 23.85
15 Milwaukee Bucks 23.14
16 Houston Rockets -2.28
17 Chicago Bulls -6.27
18 Memphis Grizzlies -9.10
19 New Orleans Hornets -21.78
20 Indiana Pacers -26.95
21 Toronto Raptors -28.46
22 New York Knicks -36.08
23 Philadelphia 76ers -41.57
24 Washington Wizards -43.41
25 Detroit Pistons -45.43
26 Golden State Warriors -45.67
27 Sacramento Kings -47.38
28 Los Angeles Clippers -49.70
29 New Jersey Nets -68.78
30 Minnesota Timberwolves -80.45

========== REAL TEAM SUB RATINGS ==========

The following are the five sub ratings comprising Real Team Ratings (RTR) in order of importance. The sum of any team's five sub ratings equals that team's RTR.

EFFICIENCY SUB RATING
2009-10 Season
Final End of Season Ratings

Orlando Magic 24.60
Cleveland Cavaliers 21.30
Utah Jazz 17.10
San Antonio Spurs 16.50
Los Angeles Lakers 15.30
Atlanta Hawks 15.30
Phoenix Suns 15.30
Denver Nuggets 13.80
Boston Celtics 11.70
Portland Trail Blazers 11.10
Oklahoma City Thunder 11.10
Dallas Mavericks 9.00
Miami Heat 7.50
Milwaukee Bucks 5.40
Charlotte Bobcats 4.80
Houston Rockets -1.20
Memphis Grizzlies -4.80
Chicago Bulls -5.40
Toronto Raptors -5.70
New Orleans Hornets -7.80
Indiana Pacers -9.30
Golden State Warriors -10.50
New York Knicks -12.00
Philadelphia 76ers -12.60
Sacramento Kings -13.50
Washington Wizards -15.60
Detroit Pistons -17.40
Los Angeles Clippers -20.40
New Jersey Nets -30.00
Minnesota Timberwolves -30.00

PERFORMANCE VERSUS THE GOOD AND VERSUS THE BEST TEAMS SUB RATING
2009-10 Season
Final End of Season Ratings

Cleveland Cavaliers 24.74
Orlando Magic 21.89
Denver Nuggets 19.38
Dallas Mavericks 19.03
Los Angeles Lakers 16.80
Utah Jazz 12.60
Atlanta Hawks 11.89
Portland Trail Blazers 11.38
Phoenix Suns 10.64
Charlotte Bobcats 7.90
Oklahoma City Thunder 7.74
Boston Celtics 7.15
San Antonio Spurs 7.05
Houston Rockets 2.22
Chicago Bulls 1.03
Miami Heat -0.55
Milwaukee Bucks -1.46
Memphis Grizzlies -2.40
New Orleans Hornets -2.78
Toronto Raptors -9.26
New York Knicks -10.58
Detroit Pistons -11.53
Indiana Pacers -12.55
Washington Wizards -13.11
Los Angeles Clippers -13.70
Philadelphia 76ers -13.87
Sacramento Kings -17.78
Golden State Warriors -19.87
Minnesota Timberwolves -22.15
New Jersey Nets -25.78

MOST RECENT GAMES SUB RATING
2009-10 Season
Final End of Season Ratings
--Over weights the most recent performance, from the most recent 25 games.
--Reflects momentum, playoff motivation, and morale.
--Substantially but indirectly and inexactly reflects the current injury situations.
--Partially, indirectly, and inexactly reflects the likelihood that coaching strategies and tactics will work or not in the playoffs.
--The last five games of the Regular Season are ignored due to playoff coaches resting key players and due to other distortions.

1 Orlando Magic 13
2 Cleveland Cavaliers 13
3 Phoenix Suns 13
4 Milwaukee Bucks 13
5 Dallas Mavericks 11
6 Miami Heat 11
7 Utah Jazz 9
8 San Antonio Spurs 9
9 Portland Trail Blazers 9
10 Oklahoma City Thunder 9
11 Los Angeles Lakers 7
12 Denver Nuggets 5
13 Atlanta Hawks 5
14 Charlotte Bobcats 5
15 Boston Celtics 3
16 Memphis Grizzlies 1
17 Houston Rockets -1
18 Chicago Bulls -3
19 Indiana Pacers -3
20 Toronto Raptors -7
21 New York Knicks -7
22 Golden State Warriors -7
23 New Orleans Hornets -9
24 New Jersey Nets -11
25 Philadelphia 76ers -13
26 Sacramento Kings -13
27 Los Angeles Clippers -13
28 Washington Wizards -15
29 Detroit Pistons -15
30 Minnesota Timberwolves -21

DEFENSIVE ADJUSTMENT SUB RATING
2009-10 Season
Final End of Season Ratings
-The defensive overweight adjustment is a small but valid adjustment that slightly modifies the ratings of teams according to where they rank defensively (the better the defense, the better for the playoffs).
-Aside from being a sub rating, this shows you how the NBA teams ranked defensively this year.

1 Charlotte Bobcats 5.80
2 Milwaukee Bucks 5.40
3 Orlando Magic 5.00
4 Los Angeles Lakers 4.60
5 Boston Celtics 4.20
6 Cleveland Cavaliers 3.80
7 Miami Heat 3.40
8 San Antonio Spurs 3.00
9 Oklahoma City Thunder 2.60
10 Utah Jazz 2.20
11 Chicago Bulls 1.80
12 Dallas Mavericks 1.40
13 Atlanta Hawks 1.00
14 Indiana Pacers 0.60
15 Portland Trail Blazers 0.20
16 Denver Nuggets -0.20
17 Houston Rockets -0.60
18 Washington Wizards -1.00
19 Sacramento Kings -1.40
20 Memphis Grizzlies -1.80
21 New Orleans Hornets -2.20
22 Los Angeles Clippers -2.60
23 Phoenix Suns -3.00
24 Philadelphia 76ers -3.40
25 New Jersey Nets -3.80
26 Detroit Pistons -4.20
27 New York Knicks -4.80
28 Minnesota Timberwolves -4.80
29 Golden State Warriors -5.40
30 Toronto Raptors -5.80

PACE ADJUSTMENT SUB RATING
2009-10 Season
Final End of Season Ratings
-The pace adjustment is a very small but valid adjustment that very slightly modifies the ratings of teams according to pace (the slower the pace, the better for the playoffs).

1 Portland Trail Blazers 2.90
2 Detroit Pistons 2.70
3 Miami Heat 2.50
4 Atlanta Hawks 2.30
5 Charlotte Bobcats 2.10
6 Cleveland Cavaliers 1.80
7 New Jersey Nets 1.80
8 Boston Celtics 1.30
9 Philadelphia 76ers 1.30
10 Washington Wizards 1.30
11 San Antonio Spurs 0.80
12 Milwaukee Bucks 0.80
13 Orlando Magic 0.50
14 Dallas Mavericks 0.30
15 New Orleans Hornets 0.00
16 Los Angeles Clippers 0.00
17 Los Angeles Lakers -0.30
18 Oklahoma City Thunder -0.70
19 Chicago Bulls -0.70
20 Toronto Raptors -0.70
21 Memphis Grizzlies -1.10
22 Utah Jazz -1.30
23 Houston Rockets -1.70
24 New York Knicks -1.70
25 Sacramento Kings -1.70
26 Denver Nuggets -2.10
27 Phoenix Suns -2.30
28 Minnesota Timberwolves -2.50
29 Indiana Pacers -2.70
30 Golden State Warriors -2.90

========== USER GUIDE ==========
Below are some key excerpts from the full User Guide. But see this User Guide article for full details about the revamped Real Team Ratings system.

USER GUIDE EXCERPTS
The Real Team Ratings system was substantially improved in April 2010 effective with this Report. The biggest change and improvement is a new factor that reflects recent performance (in about the last two months). This gets at several previously ignored items that will determine who will win and lose in playoffs, including:

-Momentum and morale
-Coaching strategies and tactics that have finally produced good (or bad) results
-New players acquired for the stretch run on the regular season and for the playoffs.
-Injuries that have occurred within the last couple of months or so and that may be carrying over into the playoffs.

See the User Guide for full details about the new Real Team Ratings system. The Guide will be extensively revised in the very near future. After it is revised, a link to it will be installed right here.

INTERPRETING RTR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN TEAMS / PREDICTING PLAYOFF SERIES
NOTES
(1) This is an excerpt from the User Guide for Real Team Ratings, which is being revised, as explained above.

(2) Injury adjustments for injuries occurring within the last month or so can not be and are not completely accounted for. For larger differences between teams (greater than 25-30 RTR points) the higher rated team would generally have to have injury problems in order to lose. The probabilities mentioned below reflect the injury wild card factor about as much as they do all other uncertain factors combined.

(3) For playoff series predicting, add six points to the rating of the team that has home court advantage.

QUICK PLAYOFF SERIES PREDICTION SCALE
After you have added six points to the RTR of the team with home court advantage, calculate the difference between the two RTRs. Then find the range in which that difference is below and then you can see the probability that the series will be won by the higher team.

0 to 5.9 Complete toss-up: flip a coin
6 to 11.9 Roughly 60% chance the higher team will win
12 to 17.9 Roughly 70% chance the higher team will win
18 to 23.9 Roughly 80% chance the higher team will win
24 to 29.9 Roughly 89% chance the higher team will win
30 to 35.9 Roughly 95% chance the higher team will win
36 to 41.9 Roughly 98% chance the higher team will win
42 to 47.9 Roughly 99% chance the higher team will win
48 or more Roughly 100% chance the higher team will win

DETAILED GUIDE TO INTERPRETATION OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN IN REAL TEAM RATINGS
NOTES
(1) This is an excerpt from the User Guide for Real Team Ratings, which is being revised, as explained above.

(2) In the detailed interpretaton guide that follows, the word "roughly" is repeatedly used in front of the probability numbers, as a reminder about the small amount of unavoidable statistical error, and to emphasize that unknown factors, especially injuries, will in some cases result in substantially different actual probabilities.

(3) For playoff series predicting, add six points to the rating of the team that has home court advantage.

The probability percentages are based on the historical results in the NBA.

DIFFERENCE IN RATINGS IS BETWEEN 0 AND 5.9
The series is a complete toss-up, when statistical error is considered. There is a strong possibility of a 7 game series. The higher team has a 50% to 55% chance of winning, depending on what exactly the difference is. These probabilities are too low for anyone to have any confidence in using RTR to say who will win. All series of this type are decided quite simply by who plays better, by who coaches better, or both.

DIFFERENCE IN RATINGS IS BETWEEN 6.0 AND 11.9
The series can easily go either way, although the higher team has a small edge, and has between a 55% to 65% chance of winning, depending on where in the range the difference is. There is a very substantial chance of a 7-game series. If the lower team wins, it is a small upset. Either slight differences in the quality of coaching, certain players playing a little better or a little worse than they did in the regular season, or both, could be responsible for an upset at this level.

DIFFERENCE IN RATINGS IS BETWEEN 12.0 AND 17.9
The series can go either way, and this type of difference gives a significant chance for a 7-game series. But the higher team has a clear edge. The higher team has between a 65% and a 75% probability of winning, depending on where in the range the difference is. If the lower team wins, it is a moderate upset. Either slight differences in the quality of coaching, certain players playing a little better or a little worse than they did in the regular season, or both, could be responsible for an upset at this level.

DIFFERENCE IN RATINGS IS BETWEEN 18.0 AND 23.9
The higher team has roughly between a 75% to 85% probability of winning, depending on where in the range the difference is. There is a chance, but only a small one, for a 7-game series. If the lower team wins, it is a fairly big upset. Either coaches, certain players, or both could be responsible for an upset at this level.

DIFFERENCE IN RATINGS IS BETWEEN 24.0 AND 29.9
The higher team has roughly between an 85% to a 93% probability of winning, depending on where in the range the difference is. In this kind of series, often the only way the lower team can win the series is by extending the series out to 7 games and then somehow winning the 7th game, thus taking the series 4 games to 3. However, it is not uncommon, assuming there is an upset in this type of series, for the lower team to so severly disrupt the favored team that the lower team upsets the higher, favored team 4 games to 2. Whichever way it does it, if the lower team does win coming in down by this amount, it should be considered a major upset. In many such cases, the coaching would have to be very wrong and/or negligent.

DIFFERENCE IN RATINGS IS BETWEEN 30.0 AND 35.9
The higher team has roughly between a 93% and a 97% probability of winning. depending on where in the range the difference is. In this kind of series, often the only way the lower team can win the series is by taking the series 7 games and winning the 7th game, thus taking the series 4 games to 3. However, there have been a tiny number of series where a team with this amount of a RTR deficit has won the series by so severly disrupting the favored team that it is able to win the series 4 games to 2. In the vast majority of such cases, the coaching for the higher team was severely wrong and/or negligent. Whether accomplished in 6 games or 7, the lower team winning despite being this far behind in RTR is extremely rare, and would be considered a very major and very surprising upset.

DIFFERENCE IN RATINGS IS BETWEEN 36.0 AND 41.9
The higher team has roughly between a 97% and a 99% probability of winning, depending on where in the range the difference is. Obviously, an upset would be extremely rare, shocking, and historical. It would in most cases be caused substantially by incompetent and/or severely negligent coaching or by one or more major injuries. With this amount of difference, any upset would almost certainly have to be with the series going all seven games.

DIFFERENCE IN RATINGS IS 42.0 AND 47.9
The higher team has a roughly 99% probability of winning the series. Obviously, an upset would be extremely rare, shocking, and historical. It would in most cases be caused substantially by incompetent and/or severely negligent coaching or by one or more major injuries. With this amount of difference, any upset would almost certainly have to be with the series going all seven games.

DEFFERENCE IN RATINGS IS 48.0 OR MORE
It is close to a 100% certainty that the higher team will win the series. Obviously, an upset would be extremely rare, shocking, and historical. It would in the vast majority of cases be caused substantially by incompetent and/or severely negligent coaching. With this amount of difference, any upset would almost certainly have to be with the series going all seven games.

COMPLETE USER GUIDE
Above are only excerpts from the full User Guide. See this User Guide article for full details about the revamped Real Team Ratings system.