We are happy to say the least. This year sure as hell beats last year when the Nuggets were threatening to appear in the Championship with their football approach to basketball and their coach way out in right field or left field (I’m not sure which, laugh out loud). Even though the Nuggets were eventually demolished by the Lakers in an elimination game in their own building 119-92, that experience of contemplating that the poorly coached Nuggets might actually be in the Championship was horrifying and miserable and will not be forgotten for a long time.
The top two factors we use to declare who we most want to win this year:
--On the superstar guard front, Kobe Bryant has four rings and Rajon Rondo has only one. Rajon Rondo was better than Kobe Bryant this year. Plus, Rajon Rondo and company bounced LeBron James from the playoffs and got the Cleveland coach fired (and the more coaches who can't coach well in the playoffs who get fired the better). Yes, Mr. Rondo deserves number two much more than Kobe deserves number five.
Also, as a side factor, Derek Fisher of the Lakers has four rings already and that's plenty. He will be the worst player among the ten starters. I know he is Phil Jackson's "coach on the court," but he just is too far in the shadow of Kobe Bryant and is just not good enough this year to deserve ring number five.
--On the coach front, expert Lakers Coach Phil Jackson has ten rings and Junior Expert Celtics Coach Doc Rivers only one. But Doc Rivers was at least as good as Phil Jackson this particular year, probably better technically, since for one thing he had even more problems to deal with than did Jackson. Doc Rivers deserves Ring number two whereas Phil Jackson's ten is already more than enough for his legacy.
So we like the Boston Celtics to win what will be a truly great series between the class of the NBA, a series almost certain to be at least six games and with a good chance for it to be seven games. Note that we are not predicting the Celtics will win; we just would prefer they would win, but again, either winning is alright from a basketball perspective.
Here is the Head to Head Preview and the two Team Grids for the 2010 Quest for the Ring Final Series. The numbers in the charts are 2009-10 Real Player Ratings for the players. A quick evaluation scale immediately follows the grids. For the full User Guide to Real Player Ratings, see the link at the bottom just above the photo of Rajon Rondo and Doc Rivers.
Below the preview grids I will preview this series further.
If you do not see a spreadsheet just below here, put the web address that you do see in a browser tab and you can view it in a new window.
SCALE FOR REGULAR SEASON REAL PLAYER RATINGS ADJUSTED FOR HIDDEN DEFENDING
Major Historic Super Star / "Perfect Player" 1.100 and more
Historic Super Star 1.000 1.099
Super Star 0.900 0.999
A Star Player / A Well Above Normal Starter 0.820 0.899
Very Good Player / A Solid Starter 0.760 0.819
Major Role Player / Good Enough to Start 0.700 0.759
Good Role Player / Often a Good 6th Man 0.640 0.699
Satisfactory Role Player 0.580 0.639
Marginal Role Player 0.520 0.579
Poor Player 0.460 0.519
Very Poor Player 0.400 0.459
Extremely Poor Player and less 0.399
The full User Guide for Team Grids is here.
AVERAGE RATINGS BY POSITION
Not all positions are created equal. These are estimates for average ratings by position among all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more. There are very few small forwards and shooting guards who don't fit at other positions who are superstars. Most superstars are players who can play point guard, power forward, or center.
Point Guard .780
Shooting Guard .600
Small Forward .650
Power Forward .720
Center .750
ALL NBA PLAYERS (ALL POSITIONS) AVERAGE: .700
NUMBER OF RINGS GOING IN TO THIS SERIES
Alphabetic by first name
Andrew Bynum 1
Brian Scalabrine 1
Derek Fisher 4
Doc Rivers 1
Glen Davis 1
Jordan Farmar 1
Josh Powell 1
Kendrick Perkins 1
Kevin Garnett 1
Kobe Bryant 4
Lamar Odom 1
Marquis Daniels 0
Michael Finley 1
Nate Robinson 0
Pau Gasol 1
Paul Pierce 1
Phil Jackson 10
Rajon Rondo 1
Rasheed Wallace 1
Ray Allen 1
Ron Artest 0
Sasha Vujacic 1
Shannon Brown 0
Shelden Williams 0
Tony Allen 1
2010 CELTICS-LAKERS SERIES PREVIEW DISCUSSION
The thing about historical superstars (greater than 1.000 Real Player Ratings) is that about the only two things that can slow them way down in the playoffs is themselves (which is rare) very heavy doubling and trapping (which is very dangerous to the team doing it because then it's four against three most of the time) and injuries which as I write this do not seem to loom as a big factor in this series.
Doc Rivers can dream about it but Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol are not going to be stopped or slowed way down by anything the Celtics can do except maybe once in a blue moon. Phil Jackson can dream about it but Rajon Rondo and Kevin Garnett are not going to be stopped or slowed way down by anything the Lakers can do except maybe once in a blue moon. Sure, there will be a quarter here and there where Kendrick Perkins shuts down Gasol and there will be a quarter or two here and there when Kevin Garnett is shut down by Lamar Odom, but these will be temporary things and, on the whole, Bryant, Gasol, Rondo, and Garnett are all going to have between really good and great series.
Kobe Bryant is not going to stop Rajon Rondo from keeping the Celtics very hard to defend with his passing and assisting all the time and neither Ray Allen nor anyone else will be able to stop Kobe Bryant from racking up mega points most of the time. Despite having the best group of three big men, the Lakers are most definitely not going to be able to any extent to contain Kevin Garnett, who is fully recovered from his 2009 injury troubles, especially since Pau Gasol is not quite big or strong enough to go head to head with Garnett and since Andrew Bynum comes to this series with a knee problem which will require surgery in the off season.
Lamar Odom is actually the one Laker who can slow down Garnett enough to swing a close game, but since Odom doesn't start the number of minutes he actually gets to guard Garnett will be fewer than the Lakers would want if they knew what was good for them. In other words I would start Odom, not Bynum, who has the knee problem and is not quite strong enough to contain Garnett even without a knee problem. Odom starting will happen if when Phil Jackson realizes that he needs to maximize the minutes where Odom is guarding Garnett; I suspect it is a "when Jackson realizes" rather than an "if Jackson realizes". Look for Odom to start either from game one or later in the series, especially if the Lakers are behind.
In general though, each team has two historical superstars and the only thing that will stop any of them from having a great series (other than injuries obviously) is themselves. I would not expect any of them to not have an outstanding series which is reason number one why this series will go down to the wire.
THE STARTERS AND BEST “6TH MAN” PLAYERS BROKEN DOWN
Historical superstars are those near perfect players with ratings greater than 1.000. Each team has two of them. The Celtics’ historical superstars Rajon Rondo plus Kevin Garnett combined are at least as good as Lakers historical superstars Pau Gasol plus Kobe Bryant combined and very probably better.
Notice that both teams come in with that perfect two historical superstar combo: one guard and one big man at power forward or center who are both historical superstars. Rondo is point guard and Garnett is power forward for the Celtics. Bryant is combo guard and Gasol is center for the Lakers. They just don't make teams any stronger than this, so this is a series most definitely worth watching.
Kobe Bryant is as you would expect a very good guard defender and he will probably early in the series be out to force Rondo to look to pass more and shoot less than even Rondo himself already wants to do, which is quite a lot to begin with. This may ironically work to Los Angeles' disadvantage, since Rondo is one of the best playmakers the NBA has seen in a long time, whereas his shooting is good but not outstanding. As the series goes along, Bryant may wisely decide to sag off Rondo a little to try to entice Rondo to shoot more, but if Rondo's IQ is as high as they say it is, and/or if Doc Rivers' calls Kobe's bluff, then Rondo will pass all the time anyway and be even more effective at making plays than if Kobe stays up on him all the time. In other words, it looks like it will be a damned if you do and damned if you don't with respect to how closely Kobe Bryant will be guarding Rajon Rondo. Rondo is about like the next Steve Nash but he is out there with one of the very best front courts whereas Nash’ front court was not what Championship teams are made of.
At the next level however, the plain old superstar level, featuring players with Real Player Ratings between .900 and .999, the Lakers are well ahead of the Celtics. Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum are superstars for the Lakers whereas the Celtics don't have any 2010 superstars. The next two Celtics are on the next rung down. The Celtics have a star in Paul Pierce at small forward and a near star at center in Kendrick Perkins. But in this series, look for Perkins to be so amped defensively that he'll be a star rather than merely a "solid starter".
At the lowest level among the starters and the 6th men, each team will feature two players with ratings below .800. (Remember that the NBA average rating among all players who play 300 minutes or more is .about .700. But averages by position vary from .600 for shooting guard at one extreme to .780 for point guard at the high end.) The Celtics start Ray Allen (.770) at 2-guard and have Rasheed Wallace (.757) as 6th man at center. The Lakers start Derek Fisher (.578) at point guard and they start Ron Artest (.752) at small forward.
Championship teams very often feature some of the best defending guards. Celtics 2-guard Ray Allen is at least as good a guard defender as is Kobe Bryant, but as already alluded to, Kobe Bryant can be slowed down a little but neither Ray Allen nor anyone else will be able to contain Kobe Bryant enough to win more than one game if even that. Offensively, Ray Allen is almost always at least as good at scoring the ball in a playoff series as he was in the regular season (which is really, really good).
By contrast Celtics 6th man center Rasheed Wallace has in recent years become very, very inconsistent offensively. He doesn't do much in the paint anymore and his three-point shooting in particular is often (but not always, fortunately for the Celtics) one extreme or the other. Wallace is fairly likely to win at least one game for the Celtics but is also fairly likely to cost the Celtics a game. In other words, if and when Wallace rains threes the Lakers are most likely going to lose that game whereas if and when Wallace misses all or most of his threes the Lakers are most likely going to win that game.
Lakers small forward Ron Artest is not as inconsistent as Rasheed Wallace is nowadays but is not as dependable as Ray Allen either. Artest has a temper that is like a volcano that you know is going to blow in the near future but you never know for sure if or when. If Artest gets ticked off about something and starts getting technical fouls and/or starts allowing Paul Pierce to score two dozen points plus a game, the Lakers are in real trouble. Artest going off like a volcano is a higher risk than you might think since Artest has no rings yet whereas almost everyone else including Paul Pierce has at least one, which increases the odds that Artest is going to get riled up if things don't go his way.
On the other hand, if Artest can make the threes he likes to make and if he can stay with Pierce without being hammered with fouls by the refs the Lakers will be in great shape. In theory, Artest can guard Pierce fairly well much of the time and very well in a game or two. In practice, it remains to be seen what will actually happen. Especially considering the four historical superstars roughly offset, Artest versus Pierce at the three spot is a major key that will determine who will win this series.
PHIL JACKSON VERSUS DOC RIVERS
Whereas two years ago Doc Rivers was unproven as a great coach before the Celtics beat the Lakers in the Championship, this year he is proven, although still not as heavily armed with “seen it all” experience as is Phil Jackson. Whereas Jackson has more knowledge, Rivers has more soul and thus more pure motivation power. Jackson has an unbelievable amount of basketball intelligence and Rivers has an unbelievable amount of basketball motivation power. But don’t kid yourself, Jackson has a lot of soul and motivational power of his own while Rivers has a lot of knowledge of his own. You have to really like this great at the least and possibly historically great coaching matchup.
RAJON RONDO
Your instructions, should you be big enough to accept them, are to go out there and get your second Ring by doing the same thing you did to bounce LeBron James: play the hell out of the point guard position and prove that it should really be called the power guard position. You were better than Kobe Bryant this year and, for that matter, you were even better than Pau Gasol. Yes, thanks to Real Player Ratings we know for sure here at QFTR that you are the best player in this Championship series! Rondo, the 2010 Ring has your name on it and it will be yours should you choose to accept this challenge and win it.
Quest for the Ring is wanting and waiting for you to make 2010 the year when you, your Coach, and your teammates proved once and for all that either you respect the power point guard concept or you almost certainly will not be winning the Quest. Plus in general your winning will make 2010 a whole hell of a lot better than it is. (Plus you can make George Karl look really bad, and you can make Larry Brown look like a complete idiot for removing Iverson from the point guard position, laugh out loud.)
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USER GUIDE
The Real Player Rating User Guide is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use the Real Player Rating performance measures. Moreover, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.
DOC RIVERS AND RAJON RONDO
