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Friday, May 8, 2009

The Best and the Worst Offenses and Defenses of the NBA in 2008-09

By far the best among relatively easy ways to grade and rank offenses and defenses is to use efficiency, which is the number of points scored (offense) per 100 possessions, or the number of points allowed (defense) per 100 possessions. This is the scoring rate, so differences in pace (how fast teams choose to play) are washed out (corrected for).

You can not simply use points per game because this makes the offense of fast pace teams look better than it is and the defense of fast paced teams look worse than it is. And the reverse would be true for slow paced teams.

The fact that there are more than 6,000 offensive and defensive possessions for NBA teams during a regular season means that even tiny differences in efficiency are significant and have a real world impact. Even if there is just a 0.1 difference between two teams, it is still valid to say that the higher team had the better offense or defense. A difference of 2 points is actually a fairly major difference, and in real life will often mean the difference between a team that has a possibility of winning a Championship and a team that does not.

Yes, I'm giving you a hard stare right now, Denver, laugh out loud. You were good but you were not Championship material this season, and your defense was, when all was said and done, overrated.

OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY OF NBA TEAMS
2008-09 REGULAR SEASON
Rate of Scoring: Points Scored per 100 Possessions
Even extremely small differences are significant and meaningful

1 Portland Trail Blazers 113.9
2 Phoenix Suns 113.6
3 Los Angeles Lakers 112.8
4 Cleveland Cavaliers 112.4
5 Boston Celtics 110.5
6 Dallas Mavericks 110.5
7 Denver Nuggets 110.4
8 Utah Jazz 110.1
9 Golden State Warriors 109.5
10 Atlanta Hawks 109.3
11 Orlando Magic 109.2
12 New Orleans Hornets 108.7
13 San Antonio Spurs 108.5
14 Houston Rockets 108.4
15 Chicago Bulls 108.4
16 New Jersey Nets 108.3
17 Indiana Pacers 108.1
18 New York Knicks 108.1
19 Philadelphia 76ers 107.9
20 Miami Heat 107.8
21 Detroit Pistons 107.4
22 Toronto Raptors 107.0
23 Milwaukee Bucks 106.7
24 Minnesota Timberwolves 106.1
25 Sacramento Kings 105.5
26 Washington Wizards 105.4
27 Charlotte Bobcats 104.7
28 Memphis Grizzlies 103.5
29 Oklahoma City Thunder 102.9
30 Los Angeles Clippers 102.3

The Portland Trailblazers were the best NBA team this year if you look only at offense. The Phoenix Suns were very close behind. The Los Angeles Lakers and the Cleveland Cavaliers trailed those top two offenses by a small amount.

Remember, do not be fooled by the seemingly small differences, because remember we are talking about the rate of scoring across more than 6,000 possessions of the ball. This is a huge statistical sample, so even seemingly extremely small differences are significant in the real world.

So the Dallas Mavericks, the Boston Celtics, and the Denver Nuggets (5th, 6th, and 7th, respectively) were good offenses but they were clearly not as good as the top four.

The Utah Jazz had the 8th best offense.

Rounding out the top ten were those perennial runner-gunners the Golden State Warriors (9th) and the much slower paced Atanta Hawks (10th); these two were slightly less offensively powerful than the Utah Jazz.

The Orlando Magic finished outside of the top 10 by the slimmest of margins.

We are only specifically mentioning the top 10 and the bottom three. For the middle and lower tiers, see the list.

The worst offensive teams in the NBA in 2008-09, in order from really bad to worst of all, were the Memphis Grizzlies (28th) the Oklahoma Thunder (29th) and the Los Angeles Clippers (30th) Happy lottery to those squads.

DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY OF NBA TEAMS
2008-09 REGULAR SEASON
Rate of Scoring Allowed: Points Scored by Opponent per 100 Possessions
Even extremely small differences are significant and meaningful

1 Orlando Magic 101.9
2 Boston Celtics 102.3
3 Cleveland Cavaliers 102.4
4 Houston Rockets 104.0
5 San Antonio Spurs 104.3
6 Los Angeles Lakers 104.7
7 Charlotte Bobcats 106.1
8 Denver Nuggets 106.8
9 New Orleans Hornets 107.0
10 Utah Jazz 107.2
11 Atlanta Hawks 107.6
12 Miami Heat 107.6
13 Portland Trail Blazers 107.8
14 Philadelphia 76ers 107.8
15 Milwaukee Bucks 107.9
16 Detroit Pistons 108.0
17 Dallas Mavericks 108.4
18 Chicago Bulls 108.7
19 Indiana Pacers 109.2
20 Oklahoma City Thunder 109.4
21 Memphis Grizzlies 109.5
22 Toronto Raptors 110.0
23 New York Knicks 110.8
24 New Jersey Nets 111.0
25 Minnesota Timberwolves 111.4
26 Phoenix Suns 111.6
27 Los Angeles Clippers 111.7
28 Golden State Warriors 113.3
29 Washington Wizards 113.6
30 Sacramento Kings 114.7

The best defense in the NBA in 2008-09 was by the Orlando Magic, who had a little better defense than did the Boston Celtics and the Clevaland Cavaliers, who were extremely close behind Boston as the 3rd best defense.

After a fairly large gap, you come to the next tier of defensive teams, which were the Rockets in 4th, the Spurs in 5th, and the Lakers in 6th.

After another substantial drop off, the Charlotte Bobcats were the 7th best defensive team in the NBA this year.

After a small but meaningful additional drop off, the Denver Nuggets were the 8th best defensive team, and they were followed closely by the Hornets (9th) and the Jazz (10th).

We are only specifically mentioning the top 10 and the bottom three. For the middle and lower tiers, see the list.

The worst defensive teams in the NBA in the 2008-09 season, going from really bad to the very worst defense of all, were the Golden State Warriors (28th) the Washington Wizards (29th) and the Sacramento Kings (30th). Happy lottery to those squads.

Note that the three worst offenses were completely different from the three worst defenses; no team had one of the three worst offenses and one of the three worst defenses at the same time!

Thank goodness for that, right?



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