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Monday, August 17, 2009

Denver Nuggets vs. New Orleans Hornets in April 2009: the Nuggets Finally win a Series, Part Seven

Editorial Notes: The following was written during the late April 2009 first round playoff series between the Denver Nuggets and the New Orleans Hornets. This content was put on the independent New Orleans Hornets forum during the series. It is presented almost exactly as originally written here, with a very few minor additions here and there.

See the additional editorial notes at the end for more details about late postings and how they are not going to be a problem any longer.


FROM APRIL 22 2009 (Before Game Two That was to be Played That Evening)
Posted by NYKF Hornet
I watched Game 1 again last night. Game 1 was up for grabs until the 8 minute mark of the 3rd period. At that point the Hornets clearly got frustrated, Denver took advantage of several Hornets turnovers (in a row) and the game got out of hand.

It's been a few days since Game 1 and things have been blown way out of proportion ... we were not completely outmatched and Denver didn't dominate us from the start, however a series of horrible decisions lead to Denver running away with the game. We had several turnovers in a row combined with several fouls, Denver had a 21 point run. 21 point run! That doesn't happen very often, and it's certainly not in our MO to let that happen over and over again.

I guess I'm just trying to say that it wasn't as bad as it seemed. Even with all of our missed shots, porous D, useless players, and awful fouls we were in that game until the middle of the 3rd period.

Denver certainly earned the win, they beat the hell out of us ... but it wasn't a start to finish *** whipping. Denver took advantage of us, we mentally dropped that game. And that leads to my next point ... we have to keep out composure.

In Game 1 it sort of started with Tyson basket tampering dunk, he threw a fit and that lead to other players getting silly fouls. Before you knew it the score went from a 7 point Denver lead to an unreachable double digit mark.


Yes, it was a rout according to the score but it wasn't really a rout. A George Karl team can not rout any team in the playoffs, because his schemes are too basic and simplistic for that to happen, and the Nuggets' managers are good at building the roster but not as good as the gold standard, the Lakers managers.

But also, Denver was not going to lose game one of the first playoff series in decades where they are a slight favorite to win the series. I wanted the final margin to be less than 15, but because of what you mention in your post, I wasn't really that upset when the margin was 29.

When you watch or monitor games in this series, keep your eye on the number of personal fouls. Generally, Denver will lose if and only if their personal fouls are more than the other team's, and if and only if they end up with at least 25 fouls in total, or at least 6 per quarter. I'm not saying it's impossible for Denver to win even if these things happen, but it's much less likely they will.

What is involved here is how strictly the referees are following the rule book, because it is obvious that the Nuggets defensively play at and beyond the outer fringes of the rules. There were a fairly large number of games this season where the Nuggets lost due to the sheer number of personal fouls called against them.

This is why the Hornets need to drive to the hoop a lot if they see that the referees are calling a relatively tight game, which is often the case in the playoffs, but I doubt was the case in game 1. You can beat the Nuggets with free throws alone! If all else fails, Lamar Odom, Pau Gasol, Trevor Ariza, and Kobe Bryant will be doing so.

In game 1, you had Hornets 29 fouls, Nuggets 22 fouls, so it was the opposite of what is needed for Denver to lose and, sure enough, they were far from the loser in the game.

Another key indicator is turnovers. For Denver to lose, you want to see the number of Denver turnovers to be at least 16 in total, and you want the turnovers of the other team to be at least 4 fewer. Denver depends on using aggressiveness and intensity to disrupt offenses and get turnovers. Teams that avoid turnovers despite being pressured to make them can beat the Nuggets.

FROM APRIL 23, 2009 (After Game Two, won by the Nuggets 108-93, as the Nuggets took a 2-0 lead in the series)
The Hornets have been steamrolled by the Nuggets in this series, and I do believe the series is effectively over now. The Nuggets will very likely win either game 3 or game 4 in New Orleans to put a fork in this one.

It's just a whole bunch of little things added together that I don't have time to list right now that produced this. See my other posts for many of the reasons why this happened. But I might summarize everything for you guys later on.

The Nuggets are quite likely to beat either Dallas or San Antonio in the second round. George Karl is coaching at such a basic, simplistic level that there is little chance his team will choke as has happened often in the past.

The Nuggets do not even have a 1/100 chance of defeating the Los Angeles Lakers in the West finals, but since they were not even supposed to make the playoffs, the season will be regarded as a huge success even if they are routed 4-0 by the Lakers.

But ultimately, what the Nuggets have done doesn't have any national or historic basketball significance. Hardly anyone outside of Colorado cares very much about the Nuggets winning two playoff series. The vast majority of basketball fans and writers know that a franchise certainly and obviously can not win the NBA Championship doing what the Nuggets have done.

Yes, I was wrong about them not being able to a win playoff series; the Nuggets are very likely to win two of them. So what?

Why was I covering the Nuggets instead of the Lakers again? Oh yes, because I was new.

This Nuggets thing has taught me that it makes little sense to cover in detail any franchise that takes shortcuts and simplifications and makes little gambles but then gets extremely lucky and wins over teams that play the fundamentals better. It has ended up being very annoying to me quite honestly.

The Nuggets are designed with aggression, intensity, and luck, but with no superstar and with little organization on offense. What is the point, Denver? You just wanted to make me look silly and win a playoff series? All you did actually was make me look silly for covering your team.

At the end of the day, who cares whether the Nuggets got almost every conceivable lucky break this year? They still can not win the Conference final or the Championship. Depending on your vantage point, unless you live in Colorado or are a hardcore Nuggets fan, the "Denver thing" is either annoying or a yawner.

Whereas by contrast, for example, all basketball fans care to some extent about whether what the Cavaliers or Lakers or Celtics are doing is good enough to win a Championship.

And Carmelo Anthony will still be considered an NBA loser, relatively speaking, when you compare him to the top players in the League, when the dust settles on this season. In case you have not noticed, he isn't even really a key part of the Nuggets' simplistic offense, let alone the most important part of it. And George Karl wanted to trade Carmelo Anthony last summer, but was stopped by Denver management. Laugh out loud!

I predicted the Nuggets would not win a playoff series, but since everything has broke their way they will end up winning two. I look like a fool, and yet the Nuggets franchise is ultimately foolish also, because you will never win a Championship or a Conference final doing what they are doing.

If the Nuggets were to defeat the Lakers I would seriously consider switching to football, laugh out loud.

I have decided that next year and in future years I am going to cover whoever is considered the best team in each conference going in to the season. In other words I am going to "take the high road". I have a million words under my belt, and I think that qualifies me to cover the best teams. I've paid my dues and completed my internship, laugh out loud.

Teams keeping their fingers crossed about bargain acquisitions, with a high intensity and aggressive defense, and with a fast break offense, are never going to be considered favorites to win the Conference, and nor will they ever actually win a Conference. So I won't be covering teams at the Nuggets' level, so to speak, anymore. And so I won't be getting all upset about their shortcuts, simplifications, and shortcomings.

And I won't be caught making stupid predictions. I mean, for example, I won't be predicting that the Lakers won't win a playoff series just because Phil Jackson has ticked me off about something, laugh out loud.

I assume I will be covering the Lakers next year, and either the Celtics or the Cavaliers as my other team.

THE NUGGETS LITERALLY STOLE AT LEAST ONE GAME
For the record Hornets, you were not supposed to have played the Nuggets in your playoff series. The Nuggets won at least one regular season game illegally this year. With the Nuggets leading by one point, Dahntay Jones tripped Grant Hill in a game in Denver against Phoenix as Hill went in for the winning score with about 2 seconds left in the game. But the referees missed the trip. There were no free throws for Phoenix!

Also, with the Nuggets leading the Mavericks by 2 Kenyon Martin heavily roughed up Jason Kidd with I think about 6 seconds left as Kidd went in for the tying score. Once again, the referees refused to make the call, even though it was not even close: it was 100% certain it was a foul, and a fairly rough one at that. Now that should have been an overtime game at least.

Even including the 1-2 illegal wins, Denver needed tie breaker good fortune to be 2nd seed; Denver finished tied with San Antonio and Portland, and one game ahead of Houston with no Tracy McGrady. Take away one win, and now Denver is fourth seed, not 2nd seed. Take away two wins and Denver is 5th seed, with no home court advantage.

HORNETS FANS: DO NOT TRASH YOUR TEAM
The Hornets would be playing San Antonio right now if only Dahntay Jones' dirty trip on Grant Hill was seen by the referees! Your coach is correct: Dahntay Jones is sometimes a dirty type player. Hornets fans: you are not even playing the team you are supposed to be playing, so please go easy on your guys.

Hornets fans: don't trash your team over being steamrolled by Denver; you still are the better team in theory. Your team is designed using building blocks necessary to win a Conference final or a Championship. You just need another block or two or three. Your 7 playoff wins last year are more valuable and more valid than the Nuggets' 8-9 wins will be this year. You actually could have competed with the Lakers last year had you got by San Antonio, whereas the Nuggets will be routed this year.

So Hornets fans, for all the reasons discussed above, please do not trash your team, your players, or your Coach due to being steamrolled by the Nuggets. You just got caught up in a Colorado fantasy trip so to speak, nothing more and nothing less.

========== Editorial Notes ==========
--The above was written in late April, 2009.

--As promised, we are finally posting material written and posted on forums in the spring. Obviously, if you have your own site, you should be posting at least simultaneously on your own site when you for whatever reason post elsewhere. But there has been a bad habit of not doing so, a bad habit that is being beaten down due to new content sharing regulations that have teeth.


========== VIDEO PLAYERS ==========

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS 2009 MOST POPULAR VIDEOS PLAYER
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DENVER NUGGETS 2009 MOST POPULAR VIDEOS PLAYER
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